one in three will close 2009 with a loss and lay off in Veneto begin to disappear as products of excellence
After the upward revision of estimates of the European Commission (the Italian GDP in 2007 will fall by only 4.7 per cent), yesterday I got the data on unemployment benefits: a reduction of almost 10 percent between September and October. Sign that things have stopped getting worse. But a report from the Bank of Italy shows that the biggest problem is that when the recovery comes, the Italian production system could be vented so as not to be able to take advantage. Three out of ten firms surveyed by the 3874 Bank of Italy expects to close 2009 with investment plans scaled down compared to last January, and especially those who expect to reduce investment in 2010 are 6 percent more than those who hope to increase them. Translated: in the first positive year after the great recession, when the Italian economy will grow by the European Commission of 0.7 percent, the companies that seek to attack the recovery will be less than che continueranno a risentire della crisi. “Con la recessione è fisiologico che si verifichi una scrematura delle imprese, ma il rischio è che sia indiscriminata, punendo le nostre imprese più dinamiche che hanno tentato l’espansione internazionale e ora si trovano più esposte”, spiega lo storico dell’Economia Giuseppe Berta che ha appena pubblicato la nuova edizione del suo “L’Italia delle fabbriche” (Il Mulino). La tesi è sostenuta dallo studio di due economisti, Antoine Berthou e Charlotte Emlinger, pubblicato sul sito Voxeu.org : la domanda dei prodotti da esportazione di alta qualità - come quelli che produce l’Italia - soffre di più il calo del Pil. Nonostante la diffusa convinzione che per il lusso non ci sia mai crisi. Il sondaggio della Banca d’Italia dimostra che le imprese italiane che lavorano con l’estero sono in uno stato confusionale: un terzo pensa che nei prossimi sei mesi le cose andranno meglio, un terzo che resteranno stabili e un terzo che peggioreranno . Considerando il proprio mercato di riferimento (per alcune l’Italia, per altre quello globale), il 40 per cento delle imprese che nei sei recent months has suffered from the recession is expected as long a period of suffering. "The duration of the crisis for Italy is a crucial variable - says Professor Berta - because it tests the internal resources of our companies, from capitalization. And small and medium-sized companies have little capital and continue to have problems obtaining credit from banks because, as demonstrated by the survey, those who say they find it difficult when they go to apply for funding are a third. And as much as 28.2 per cent rejected claims to have seen the demand for credit. A combination of low internal demand of difficulties at international level and close in bank loans makes pessimistic firms: one in three expects to close loss in 2009, 36 percent to reduce employment in the year. A year ago, in the same poll, which included those statements in red were only 17 percent. For those who want to be optimistic, there is always a Fiat. In Europe, continues to gain market shares (and should get the renewal of incentives), now that the sale of Opel jumped the Russians might come back to Magna assault the German production company to complete its international expansion. Yesterday afternoon, the CEO of the group, Sergio Marchionne, has proposed recovery plans for Chrysler (incorporated by Fiat in January with a joint venture) will focus on the 500 produced in Mexico - to offer, in the first version Abarth - but especially on Jeep Cherokee and, because cars with high consumption of sweetened green technologies from Fiat, now I'm back popular with oil at $ 80 a barrel. "Fiat has for years been a redwood in a forest of dwarf trees, but now his role in the Italian economy has changed. If the attempt to able Marchionne, the Fiat Lingotto become a truly global enterprise, " says Berta, who has been studying the history of the house in Turin. In other words: the new dynamism of the Fiat is no longer enough to tow the Italian production system. According to Berta "industrial Italy in 1970 was an irregular hourglass: a base of small and micro enterprises, a summit of public and private companies in the midst of a significant size and midsize businesses. Then he expanded the lower half of the body of the hourglass and has failed the summit. " The problem is that the crisis starts to hog the engine even medium-sized companies that had replaced the summit. And the recovery, that Italy will still be at most an increase of slightly above zero, it might be too late. 
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