IMF forecasts
The estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leaves unchanged compared to October 2010 the forecast for Italian GDP this year, but file downwards (-0.1%) than that of the next year, so the Italian GDP will grow by 1% in 2011 and 2012 's 1.3%.
revamps instead upward the estimate of world GDP per il 2011: quest'anno l'economia crescerà del 4,4%, lo 0,2% in più rispetto a quanto stimato in ottobre. Il prossimo anno l'economia mondiale si espanderà del 4,5%, previsione invariata rispetto alla precedente. Eurolandia crescerà quest'anno dell'1,5% (stima invariata) e nel 2012 dell'1,7% (-0,1%). Gli Stati Uniti cresceranno nel 2011 del 3,0% (+0,7%) e del 2,7% (-0,3%) il prossimo anno.
Ulteriori rigorosi e credibili stress test sulle banche sono necessari per le banche europee, afferma l'Fmi sottolineando che i test devono essere seguiti da piani di ricapitalizzazione e ristrutturazione per gli istituti che lo necessitano.
"The size of the European Financial Stability Facility to be increased and its mandate should be more flexible and, for countries where the banking system represents a large swath of the economy, is now more than ever essential to ensure access to sufficient funds ".
According to the 'IMF, countries with high debt levels, both inside and outside the euro area, should move forward with plans for fiscal consolidation ambitious and credible medium-term. It also highlights as risks in the euro area sovereign debt spreads widened to other countries. "The spreads of bonds in some cases have reached the highest levels significantly above seen during the crisis last May. The pressure on Ireland were particularly severe, and led to EU-ECB-IMF plan. The links between the average returns of the securities of Greece and Ireland with those of Portugal remain high, but the correlations have increased sharply in recent months with yields and English, to a lesser extent, with those of Italy, with increasing pressures on spreads.
The U.S. federal deficit will amount in 2011 to 10.75% of GDP, more than double that of the euro. The debt will exceed 110% of GDP in 2016. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reiterates that "the absence of a credible plan and medium term "by the United States to consolidate public finances could lead to" an increase in interest rates, which could adversely affect financial markets and the global economy. "
China confirms engine of the economy world. The Chinese GDP will expand by 9.6% in 2011 and 2012 by 9.5%. The Indian economy will grow this year instead of 8, 4% and 8% in 2012.
Continued global economic recovery continues, however, even though two-speed, with advanced economies that proceed slower than the emerging ones, where they are "emerging inflationary pressures and there are signs of overheating, due to capital flows. "according to the IMF remain high" downside risks "on the economy. These include" the possibility that tensions in the peripheral countries of the euro area will widen to Europe, the lack of progress in formulating plans of budgetary consolidation in the medium term, the continuing weakness of the U.S. housing market and the bursting of potential bubbles in emerging markets. "
Monetary policy in advanced economies should remain accommodative, and the unemployment rate remains high in advanced economies, which grew by 2.5% in both 2011 and 2012. The emerging economies and developing countries will grow this year by 6.5% (+0.1% compared to Estimates of October) and 6.5% in 2012.
The financial conditions finally improve or remain stable in 2011, but global financial stability is at risk, with the interaction between the risks of sovereign debt and banking sectors that were intensified. The EU policy must ensure then the restructuring of bank balance sheets and have been, and continue the reform of the market.
Source: ANSA.it
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